Nintendo Switch 2 Sales Forecast for 2025 Revealed

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts robust US sales for the Nintendo Switch 2, projecting approximately 4.3 million units sold in 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This prediction mirrors the original Switch's impressive 4.8 million unit sales by the end of 2017, a figure that exceeded Nintendo's initial projections and necessitated air-freighting additional consoles to meet demand. The anticipation surrounding the Switch 2 is palpable, frequently trending on social media. However, translating this online buzz into concrete sales remains uncertain.

Several key factors will influence the Switch 2's performance in 2025, assuming a timely release. Crucial elements include launch timing – ideally before the summer, capitalizing on periods like Japan's Golden Week – and the competitiveness of its initial game lineup. Piscatella's prediction suggests the Switch 2 will capture roughly one-third of the US console market (excluding handheld PCs). He anticipates potential supply chain challenges, echoing the initial Switch launch, though acknowledges the possibility of Nintendo having proactively addressed this.

While optimistic about Switch 2 sales, Piscatella predicts the PlayStation 5 will retain its leading position in the US console market. The Switch 2's considerable hype is a positive factor, but the PS5's anticipated 2025 releases, including the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto 6, pose significant competition. Ultimately, the Switch 2's success hinges on the quality of its hardware and the appeal of its launch titles.

The overall success of the Switch 2 remains contingent on several factors, including a strong launch lineup and effective supply chain management to avoid repeating the initial Switch's stock shortages. The intense competition from established players like Sony and their anticipated releases adds another layer of complexity to the sales forecast.